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Re: All In Trades

By billyvan1989
11/03/2021 2:47 pm
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Last edited at 11/03/2021 2:49 pm

Re: All In Trades

By billyvan1989
11/03/2021 3:35 pm


New management :)
Last edited at 11/03/2021 3:39 pm

Re: All In Trades

By GrandadB
11/03/2021 3:44 pm
norm wrote:
For all those who criticize billy's trades, let it be known that Sean McVay is a full believer in the billy draft pick strategy!



We will see if "GM billy" works in real life! Who needs picks when you can have Von Miller, Matthew Stafford, etc.


Unfortunately, "GM billy" did not get a Stafford or Von Miller like the Rams did for his first round picks, he was continually ripped off by those who have more accurate position weights and values.

Re: All In Trades

By Waitwut
11/03/2021 4:00 pm
I wonder if continual includes my trade with Billy for Clint Walter or whatever? I thought that was a balanced trade. *I tried getting him back as well*

Couldn't. Looked back at every trade with Billy and don't think you can point to a single one that was a rip off.

Don't think I won the trade with the three picks I sent billyboy's way for Molinar. He is a great kick holder. But I'm still upgrading there this season I hope.

I think some of his trades were bad, but his teams have never been as bad as his records would indicate.
Last edited at 11/03/2021 4:08 pm

Re: All In Trades

By norm - League Admin
11/03/2021 5:13 pm
OK, the billyvan trade grade machine:

Del Fuego Phoenix trades Christopher Molinar (QB) to Shadow Dancers for Round 2, 4, 5 picks. Picks made so far:

2037 2-24: Eddie Ward (LG)
2037 4-1: Williams Yoder (C)
2038 Round 5

Billy's Grade: A. Looks like he ripped off the Shadow Dancers. Molinar is never going to be star QB, but Ward looks like a beast on the OL. One of billy's best trades.
----
Combo Trade:

Del Fuego Phoenix trade Clarence Harp for round 2 and 3 picks from Pirates, and then trades Sam Evans to the Pirates for Harp and a better second round pick. Net trade is Evans for a third rounder and move up in the second round. Billy also absorbs a ridiculous cap hit for the trades. Picks were used as follows:

2036 2-4: Daniel McCrea (RB)
2037 3-16: Ashley Rodriguez (LT)

Billy's grade: C-. Evans is aging, but still a useful receiver. Meanwhile, billy traded away the third rounder and McCrea didn't pan out as a starter and now an RB, but might resurrect his career there. The cap hit makes this deal a lot worse, but in the abstract, aging Evans for two draft picks doesn't sound that bad. If McCrea becomes a start RB, maybe this looks like a win! After all, aging Evans didn't set the world on fire in Independence last year.
----
Del Fuego Phoenix trade 3rd, 5th and 6th round picks for Philip Lim (RT). Picks used so far on:

2037 5-1: Clarence Manley (WR)
2037 6-1: Walter Jackson (RT)

Billy's grade: D. Lim is his starting RT, but Jackson would be just as good I think. Manley is in the 80s in default rating, and there's still a third round pick to come. Billy paid a lot for an old RT that could retire this year and who isn't very good anyways. 3rd round picks are no guarantee of course, so aging RT for 3rd, 5th and 6th doesn't sound bad on paper, but if the aging RT is no good and he could have signed a much better free agent and kept the picks AND the picks turned out good, this trade looks bad.
----
Del Fuego Phoenix trades 2 first round picks for: David Hooks (WLB), Michael Huber (FS), Ross McKibben (MLB), Tom Hubbard (CB). One of the picks became #1 overall, and Pirates selected

2037 1-1: Ulysses Lucia (MLB)

One first round still to be drafted.

Billy's grade: D. Yes, this was the trade that started it all, but actually, viewed from billy's perspective, all four players he traded for are still on his roster AND starters. He paid 2 first rounders to get 4 starting defensive players. One can debate how good they are, but they are better than anyone he had on his team, hence why they are still starters this year. First round picks don't guarantee any starters. Of course, Lucia looks on paper like a super star LB that will be playing for the next 15 years and is probably going to be more impactful than all those 4 starters combined. But I can't say it is a total rip off when you get four starters out of the deal. Of course, they were all age 28 and older too. So we all agree it was a bad deal for billy - no one would trade Lucia for those four guys today, let alone an additional first rounder. But not a total rip off.
---
Del Fuego Phoenix sends Antonio Harris (WR) to the Panthers for Leon Hill (RB) and 4th and 3rd round pick. Pick used so far;

2036 4-24: Shane Jarvis (DT)

Billy's grade: B-. What's this? A reasonable trade? Well, that's only when viewed in isolation. (see next trade for why this one is actually pretty bad) But he gave up his #1 WR and got a younger RB1 in return. And netted a third round pick in the process. And that 4th rounder even looks usable. The problem is that billy never runs, so the WR sure would have been a lot more useful. Also: he gave up a lot to get that WR. See next
----
Del Fuego Phoenix trade a first rounder and 3 third rounders to Terror for Antonio Harris (WR) and a 7th round pick.
Picks so far:
2036 1-13: Don Polanco (DT)
2036 3-14: Richard Keaton (LT)
2037 3-1: Jonathon Humes (RB)

Billy's grade: C-. He gave up a lot of draft capital to get a WR1. The Terror used that pick to get a strong DT and other pieces. Billy made it worse by trading that WR1 less than a year later. So he traded a 1 plus 3 thirds for an RB and a third. And he doesn't even run. So net trade is 1st and two 3rds for a speed 74 RB1. Given how many RBs folks have dragged off the street and turned into stars (the Scott Cospers of the world) this has to look bad in total. But had he kept Bryant and he played well the next four years, it could have been justifiable!

That's if for now. Might look deeper later. But early conclusions - while billy consistently loses the trades he makes, I don't think he's being totally ripped off in the abstract. I think the way he is using the players and how quickly he gives up on them is skewing the results too. These aren't trades I would make, but in the abstract I don't think anyone here could say, at the time the trades were made, that no reasonable person could have pulled the trigger on these moves.
Last edited at 11/03/2021 5:55 pm

Re: All In Trades

By GrandadB
11/03/2021 7:55 pm
I didnt see the worst trade of the bunch in that review, which was trading two firsts, one that was the 1.1 this past draft, and Billy's next first rounder, which hopefully will not be another one in the top 10, if I have anything to do with it.

Two first round picks, already a 1.1, for three over-rated starters all 8 yr vets or older, all of which I have rated in the 70s and not worth their inflated trade meter values. A 1.1 pick is, as most know, over 2000 on the meter, whether its worth that or not,
here's a copy of the trade, my weights included.
8/09/2021 7:00 pm
Independence Pirates sends:
David Hooks (WLB) 64
Michael Huber (FS) 79
Ross McKibben (MLB) 71
Tom Hubbard (CB) best player in the group, 81 .... my weights are probably different from most, up until the 4.6 version, speed was paramount for LBs and DBs. Will see how that pans out for 4.6, so far, I still stick with speed when in doubt.

Pennsauken Del Fuego Phoenix sends:
2037 Round 1 (Pennsauken)
2038 Round 1 (Pennsauken)


So, what I would like to know if anyone else thinks this was anywhere near a fair deal. In addition, another trade was made between the two teams afterwards, a 2nd & 3rd round pick were traded for a 10 yr vet DE, not a bad deal for a good DE, but.... one that can be easily replaced and matched in performance by a good FA, if you have good weights and pay attention to the players who lead the league in sacks.

What's done is done, but would really like to see this kind of trading not happen again, with strong enforcement by the LA. cheers!

Re: All In Trades

By billstein
11/03/2021 11:04 pm
Fair doesn't matter. Billy is a grown man, who has been playing the game for a long time. The only owner who has to take care of Billy is Billy.

Mike Ditka gave away an entire draft year's picks for Ricky Williams. You didn't see anyone jumping in saying, "Wait... don't take it... it's unfair for the Saints".

I understand taking care of new owners so they don't get overwhelmed by the game... but if an owner with a couple years under his belt offers me a starter for a 7th rd pick... I shouldn't have to think, "It's a great deal, but what will the other teams say?".

What's to stop a division rival from challenging every trade you make, just to keep you from getting stronger?

Re: All In Trades

By norm - League Admin
11/03/2021 11:20 pm
It’s there Grandad. I graded it a D because Billy got four defensive starters for two years. Not great players. But still four starters for him in his own evaluation. I compare this to fantasy football trades where you trade one star for three mediocre players. The guy who gets the star always wins the deal. But sometimes you are so desperate for depth you pull the trigger. Billy lost the deal for sure. No one would do the trade knowing who the first rounder was now. But viewed in the abstract would you trade two number ones if you thought you’d get 4 guaranteed starters out of it? To me, the league admin, that’s not too crazy. I wouldn’t do it but I also wouldn’t overturn it as too unfair.

Edit: I’ll also add that the default ratings put these guys as 70s and 80s. But yes even using trade scores this is a loser trade. Probably picks worth 4000 vs player worth only around 2500 or so.
Last edited at 11/03/2021 11:59 pm

Re: All In Trades

By billyvan1989
11/04/2021 12:05 am
lol waitwut you know i wont give you back your clint walker. there won't be anymore trades from me for the rest of my life.

Re: All In Trades

By Waitwut
11/04/2021 6:07 am
That fine. And that fine.

He is yours. I tried a long time ago to get him back, not recently. He is very much an afterthought now. Enjoi!

My main point was to identify what "continual" meant and I wanted to check myself. I'm still waiting to see it. Right now looks like we are just talking about the bad trade you helped create, and the uproar that you have become.

Funny thing, I'm not sure you're nearly as aware of the conversations going on as almost anyone in this league. Though basically this whole offseason has been about you, and GDB trying to vindicate one really bad trade on your behalf. I got a suspicion that you played a hand in formulating the trade GDB refers to a continual (though it is singular) GDB busy trying to make Xero look like a bad guy who just ripped Billy off, Billy to oblivious/ashamed to let GDB know that he was okay with this trade. GDB wants to selectively police Billy like big brother.

It all stinks. Ethically it is unbalanced because GDB does not police every trade or new/struggling player the same. Why Billy so special even though he is blatant about his bad moves and other MFN decisions (gameplanning, depth chart, FA, cap control)? Is it because he let's you log into his account? Billy lacks so much knowledge, it seems very unlikely that without direct vision of what is going on with Billy's team GDB would be able to provide much more than pointers. Can't see offers, can't see plays, can't see Misc gameplanninh setup. Is GDB honestly going line by line, screen by screen coding Billy without actually seeing what Billy currently has going on. This is just getting equally as sketchy as a bad trade.
Last edited at 11/04/2021 6:24 am